Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 0.273483 0.308665 0.346805 0.391249 0.441650 0.497075 0.562701
2025-11-02 0.211437 0.255986 0.307881 0.372895 0.452320 0.546385 0.666536
2025-11-09 0.165152 0.212754 0.271851 0.350832 0.453973 0.584573 0.763263
2025-11-16 0.135319 0.184495 0.249218 0.341022 0.468543 0.640368 0.891077
2025-11-23 0.112111 0.161001 0.228889 0.330616 0.480233 0.693832 1.024819
2025-11-30 0.098552 0.148571 0.221599 0.336832 0.515720 0.785512 1.228267
2025-12-07 0.082985 0.130735 0.203704 0.324404 0.521287 0.833591 1.374028
2025-12-14 0.071824 0.117905 0.191391 0.318456 0.535626 0.896959 1.554577
2025-12-21 0.062671 0.106897 0.180289 0.312570 0.548788 0.959912 1.744733
2025-12-28 0.057322 0.101427 0.177466 0.320104 0.585831 1.068928 2.034974
2026-01-04 0.051195 0.093706 0.169632 0.317437 0.603860 1.146219 2.279021
2026-01-11 0.046716 0.088324 0.165193 0.320260 0.632385 1.247132 2.586499
2026-01-18 0.043200 0.084425 0.163270 0.328250 0.673573 1.381912 2.994242
2026-01-25 0.037989 0.076531 0.152630 0.317324 0.674737 1.436019 3.240887
2026-02-01 0.033019 0.068451 0.140540 0.301612 0.663358 1.461971 3.430371
2026-02-08 0.029595 0.063107 0.133334 0.295278 0.671551 1.532333 3.737788
2026-02-15 0.026506 0.058058 0.126076 0.287736 0.675803 1.594509 4.038120
2026-02-22 0.024871 0.055981 0.124996 0.294145 0.713923 1.743121 4.587727
2026-03-01 0.022231 0.051281 0.117412 0.284056 0.710264 1.788981 4.876494
2026-03-08 0.020259 0.047873 0.112358 0.279368 0.719441 1.868937 5.275459
2026-03-15 0.018501 0.044744 0.107549 0.274575 0.727574 1.947593 5.687525
2026-03-22 0.017587 0.043555 0.107278 0.281408 0.767871 2.119914 6.411843
2026-03-29 0.016278 0.041205 0.103811 0.279252 0.783070 2.225042 6.954324